Abstract:

This talk is primarily focused on cyclones, both extratropical and tropical. While 1-day operational forecasts of these storms can be quite good, there is still much to improve for medium-range forecasts and climate predictions, especially in terms of the hazards the storms may bring. With this in mind, the approach presented herein uses statistical analysis of historical events to determine if there are links between the synoptic-scale organization of the storms and the locations or traits of the hazards they produce. Specifically, I will report on the connections, or, in some cases lack thereof, between the paths taken by these storms and storm surge, precipitation, and high winds. The statistical results are interpreted through known physical processes that generate the hazards, with rationale provided on the patterns observed. After talking about cyclones identified based on the hazards they create, I will shift focus and discuss temporal clustering of cyclones. For this topic, I will review Rossby wave-breaking and the unique behavior of clustering at the storm track entrance and exit. Then, I will review what is known on clustering events that impact Western Europe and then detail what we have found for the Northeast US.