Abstract:

In order to improve the numerical models produced by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), model forecasts must be verified and evaluated during development and in production.  The Verification, Post-Processing, and Product Generation Branch (VPPPGB) of NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) is responsible for the verification and evaluation of numerical models planned for and included in NCEP’s Production Suite.  As part of the verification process, model forecasts are evaluated statistically using a variety of metrics to 1) determine performance characteristics and 2) identify areas for improvement.  Forecast maps of high-impact weather, ocean, and climate events are also evaluated to determine the utility of NCEP’s numerical models in situations that impact lives and property.

This presentation provides an overview of global model verification at EMC.  The current performance of NCEP's operational global models will be discussed, as well as the results from past official model evaluations (which occur prior to operational model upgrades).  Case studies of recent high-impact weather events [e.g., Hurricane Ian (2022)], originally presented by the EMC Model Evaluation Group (MEG), will also be shown.  In addition, this presentation will provide a preview of the new EMC Verification System (EVS), which will replace and expand upon EMC’s existing operational verification software in early 2024.  EVS v1.0 will utilize the Model Evaluation Tools (METplus) software to provide a comprehensive look at the global and regional models included in NCEP’s Production Suite.  Verification graphics produced by EVS will have a consistent, publication-quality format and will be shared with the broader community daily on EMC’s Verification webpages.