Challenges in Numerical Weather Prediction of Thunderstorm Upscale Growth

This seminar was recorded and can be seen HERE

Abstract: Although it is well-known that numerical weather prediction models run with convection-allowing grid spacing show more realistic convective structures than models requiring the use of convective parameterizations, numerous problems remain in the simulation of convective mode, particularly for linear systems and bow echoes.  This presentation will examine how refinement of horizontal grid spacing in convection-allowing models impacts the simulation of the evolution of convective mode.  It is found that finer grid spacing does result in more frequent depiction of linear systems and bow echoes, but problems in the timing of these modes or in the location of stratiform rainfall make it questionable whether any real skill has been gained.  Additional research focusing on what factors play the biggest role in upscale growth of convection into MCSs will also be examined using a set of 30 cases simulated in WRF, along with some idealized experiments performed using the CM1 cloud model.  Finally, results will be presented examining the predictability of severe winds within nocturnal bow echoes.

This talk is presented as a Zoom Webinar. For anyone outside the department; If you would like to attend, email [email protected]

• Topic: William Gallus Colloquium
• Date: Sep 23, 2020
• Time: 3:30-4:30 PM Eastern Time (US and Canada)

Join from PC, Mac, Linux, iOS or Android: https://psu.zoom.us/j/99947800931?pwd=NE1tNjZSZTZEdVpjTXVLb0tSNzIwdz09