METEO 415

Forecasting Practicum

Meteorology 415: Forecasting Practicum

Fall 2020

Instructor: Kyle Imhoff
Office: 606A Walker
E-mail: [email protected]
Office Hours: By appt through Zoom

Class Times: Monday/Wednesday 2:30-5:30pm

Mixed-mode sessions: 607 Walker and Zoom
Remote sessions: Zoom

Course Designation In Curriculum: Professional Elective

Course Description: Modern techniques in weather analysis and forecasting.

Prerequisites: Meteo 411

Students who do not meet these prerequisites may be disenrolled according to Administrative Policy C-5 if they do not have the proper prerequisite override. Students who add the course after being disenrolled according to this policy are in violation of Item 15 on the Student Code of Conduct: https://studentaffairs.psu.edu/support-safety-conduct/student-conduct/code-conduct.

Course Philosophy

This class is not like other courses that you have taken in the past – it is not a ‘lab’ course nor is it a ‘theoretical’ course. In some ways it is a combination of both and in other ways it is neither. The term ‘practicum’ simply means a practical section of a course of study. The basic premise of this course is to introduce students to the world of operational meteorology and to provide “hands-on” experience in making weather forecasts. This course will utilize many other topics and theory that you have covered in previous meteorology courses – this prior knowledge is essential to consistently making accurate forecasts. In addition, the course will provide students with the opportunity to understand the costs and benefits of using weather models (numerical weather prediction).

Some of you may be taking this course because you have aspirations of becoming an operational meteorologist. Others may be taking this course just to gain some basic understanding of forecasting and just “get your feet wet.” This course will be greatly beneficial to both groups – it will provide the foundation necessary for those who want to make a career out of forecasting and will also provide a thorough exposure to the subject matter that others not interested in a career will learn the basics.

Things to keep in mind (and to keep your sanity)

It is important to note that the best students may not be the best forecasters! Forecasting is not about how much you know or how well you can replicate a certain set of instructions. It is about being able to apply your knowledge correctly to what the real atmosphere does and to be able to adjust to every new situation. It also requires one to be able to interpret and assess model guidance correctly and responsibly. Forecasting is not easy and it can be very frustrating (even to professionals!). You will make bad forecasts and you will “miss the boat” on some occasions – prepare yourself mentally now.

Paul Knight, a former instructor of this course, introduced the 10,000 hour rule to the class at the beginning of each semester (this was taken from a book called “Outliers: The Story of Success” written by Malcolm Gladwell). The basic idea is that it takes 10,000 hours to be able to consider yourself an expert in a particular skill – this concept certainly applies to forecasting as well. You will not be an expert in forecasting by the end of this course but you will have the tools necessary to become one over time. Do not get discouraged and keep trying; if you apply yourself, you will get better.

Course Outline

Week One through Four: Introductory Lectures; Experimental Forecasting; Course Mechanics; Daily Zoom Quizzes
Weeks Five through Seven: Contest One; Daily Zoom Quizzes; Map Discussion; Instructor-Led Forecast Reviews
Weeks Eight Through Ten: Contest Two; Daily Zoom Quizzes; Map Discussion; Student-Led Lectures/Forecast Reviews
Weeks Eleven Through Fifteen: Contest Three; Daily Zoom Quizzes; Map Discussion; Student-Led Forecast Reviews

Course Assignments

Forecasting Contests (50% of your grade):

Students will be required to participate in weather forecasting “contests.” These contests will assess forecast accuracy on an individual level as well as compare how each student is doing in comparison to the rest of the class. Grades will be based on how well you score relative to your classmates. However, you will not “fail” this portion of the grade if you struggle all semester. If you show up and make an effort, you will get at least approx. 70-75% of this grade. So, remember – show up and make an effort! If you miss forecasts or do not show up – you will NOT get that credit. Contest 1 will be 10% of your overall grade, Contest 2 will be 15% of your grade, and Contest 3 will be 25% of your grade.

Weather Journals (20% of your grade):

Starting during Contest Two, students will be required to create weather journals. These journals are a way for you to learn from your mistakes and to take notes on what you have observed about model errors/biases/advantages. Rubric will be provided on Canvas and details discussed in class.

Student “Lectures” (10% of your grade):

The best way to learn is by teaching others. Students will present lectures based off of presentations created by prior students. Students must supplement this prior work with new and additional information – if you simply present what was already done, your grade will reflect that.

Forecast Reviews (10% of your grade):

Students will present forecast verifications and reviews – these will occur in contests two and three.

Individual Assignments/Daily Quizzes (10% of your grade):

Throughout the semester, some homework assignments will be given to supplement what is taught in class and to provide additional insight into the field of observational meteorology. Daily quizzes each day will be given through Zoom polling.

Course Objectives

Students can demonstrate the ability to produce forecasts of a variety of weather variables for atmospheric systems that occur throughout the year (relate to program objectives 1, 2, and 3)
Students can demonstrate the ability to use numerical weather prediction models to guide the creation of weather forecasts (relate to program objectives 1, 2, and 3)

Course Outcomes

Students can demonstrate knowledge of the Norwegian cyclone model and other conceptual models to be used as a framework for the creation of a weather forecast (relate to program outcomes a, b, and c)
Students can demonstrate knowledge of the roles of both the upper-level flow (e.g., the jet stream) and the thermodynamic structure in determining the expected evolution of the atmosphere at various locations (relate to program outcomes a, b, and c)
Students can demonstrate knowledge of how orography and large bodies of water affect various aspects of local weather such as cloud and precipitation patterns (relate to program outcomes a, b, and c)
Students can demonstrate the ability to use dynamic, statistical, and ensemble numerical forecasts of the atmosphere to diagnose quantitatively the likely atmospheric conditions at a specific location (relate to program outcomes a, b, and c)
Students can demonstrate the ability to create and disseminate a useful weather forecast based on current observations and numerical forecasts of the atmosphere (relate to program outcomes a, b, c, d, and e)

Academic Integrity

Students in this class are expected to write up their problem sets individually, to work the exams on their own, and to write their papers in their own words using proper citations. Class members may work on the problem sets in groups, but then each student must write up the answers separately. Students are not to copy problem or exam answers from another person's paper and present them as their own; students may not plagiarize text from papers or websites written by others. Students who present other people's work as their own will receive at least a 0 on the assignment and may well receive an F or XF in the course. Please see: Earth and Mineral Sciences Academic Integrity Policy: http://www.ems.psu.edu/undergraduate/academic-advising/forms-and-procedures/academic-integrity, which this course adopts. To learn more, see Penn State's "Plagiarism Tutorial for Students."

Course Copyright

All course materials students receive or to which students have online access are protected by copyright laws. Students may use course materials and make copies for their own use as needed, but unauthorized distribution and/or uploading of materials without the instructor’s express permission is strictly prohibited. University Policy AD 40, the University Policy Recording of Classroom Activities and Note Taking Services addresses this issue. Students who engage in the unauthorized distribution of copyrighted materials may be held in violation of the University’s Code of Conduct, and/or liable under Federal and State laws.

For example, uploading completed labs, homework, or other assignments to any study site constitutes a violation of this policy.

Accommodations for Students with Disabilities

Penn State welcomes students with disabilities into the University's educational programs. Every Penn State campus has an office for students with disabilities. The Student Disability Resources (SDR) website provides contact information for every Penn State campus: (http://equity.psu.edu/student-disability-resources/disability-coordinator). For further information, please visit the Student Disability Resources website (http://equity.psu.edu/student-disability-resources).

In order to receive consideration for reasonable accommodations, you must contact the appropriate disability services office at the campus where you are officially enrolled, participate in an intake interview, and provide documentation: http://equity.psu.edu/student-disability-resources/applying-for-services. If the documentation supports your request for reasonable accommodations, your campus’s disability services office will provide you with an accommodation letter. Please share this letter with your instructors and discuss the accommodations with them as early in your courses as possible. You must follow this process for every semester that you request accommodations.

Attendance

Regular attendance is critical for building on the skills and knowledge developed throughout the class. Students who participate have a more complete understanding of the material presented and are more likely to succeed in the class. This is true whether your attendance is face-to-face or remote. This course abides by the Penn State Attendance Policy E-11: http://undergrad.psu.edu/aappm/E-11-class-attendance.html, and Conflict Exam Policy 44-35: http://senate.psu.edu/policies-and-rules-for-undergraduate-students/44-00-examinations/#44-35. Please also see Illness Verification Policy: https://studentaffairs.psu.edu/health-wellness/medical-services/policies-patient-resources, and Religious Observance Policy: http://undergrad.psu.edu/aappm/R-4-religious-observances.html. Students who miss class for legitimate reasons will be given a reasonable opportunity to make up missed work, including exams and quizzes. In all cases, you should inform me in advance, when possible. Missing class, even for a legitimate purpose, may mean there is work that cannot be made up, hurting your grade in this class.. In addition to illness (covered below), legitimate reasons for missing class include religious observance, military service, family emergencies, regularly scheduled university-approved curricular or extracurricular activities, and post-graduate, career-related interviews when there is no opportunity for students to re-schedule these opportunities (such as employment and graduate school final interviews). Students who encounter serious family, health, or personal situations that result in extended absences should contact the Office of the Assistant Vice President for Student Affairs (AVPSA) and Student Care and Advocacy for help: http://studentaffairs.psu.edu/studentcare. Whenever possible, students participating in University-approved activities should submit to the instructor a Class Absence Form: http://undergrad.psu.edu/aappm/classabs.pdf, at least one week prior to the activity.

Because of classroom size limitations, you will be asked to attend in person only on certain days. Your schedule of attendance will be given to you or available in Canvas. The attendance schedule is designed with the health and safety of everyone in the class in mind, to ensure that we can maintain safe physical distancing during class time. To maintain appropriate social distancing and safety of in-person participants, come only on the day you are scheduled, wearing your mask appropriately (i.e., covering your mouth and nose).

Use the symptom checker of the Penn State GO app every day to see if you have any COVID-19 symptoms. If you have COVID-19 symptoms or are otherwise not feeling well, DO NOT COME TO CLASS, and seek the advice of a medical professional as appropriate. If you have been notified or know yourself that you have been in contact with someone who has tested positive for COVID-19, DO NOT COME TO CLASS and please make sure you have been reported as a close contact. I cannot stress this strongly enough. We are counting on you to help contain the spread of the virus (and other illnesses) on campus. If you need to isolate (because you are infected or have symptoms and are awaiting a test result) or quarantine (because you were a close contact to an infected person), the Student Support Services Office will let both of us know when you are allowed to attend class again. If you attend class before the approved date, it will be a student conduct violation, because you are endangering the health of your classmates and me. While you are in isolation or quarantine, I will work with you to help you maintain progress in the course as you are able. [This may include participating remotely, watching the recorded class, and/or completing asynchronous course content.] If you are not in class on your assigned day, you may be contacted by the instructor or the TA to check up on you and make sure you are okay.

According to University guidelines, and because of the distancing procedures in place for in-person classes, if someone in the class tests positive, we will continue with our regularly scheduled classes.

Weather Delays

Campus emergencies, including weather delays, are announced on Penn State News and communicated to cell phones, email, the Penn State Facebook page, and Twitter via PSUAlert (Sign up at: https://psualert.psu.edu/psualert/).

Reporting Bias-Motivated Incidents

Penn State takes great pride to foster a diverse and inclusive environment for students, faculty, and staff. Acts of intolerance, discrimination, or harassment due to age, ancestry, color, disability, gender, gender identity, national origin, race, religious belief, sexual orientation, or veteran status are not tolerated (https://policy.psu.edu/policies/ad29) and can be reported through Educational Equity via the Report Bias webpage.

Counseling and Psychological Services

Many students at Penn State face personal challenges or have psychological needs that may interfere with their academic progress, social development, or emotional wellbeing. The university offers a variety of confidential services to help you through difficult times, including individual and group counseling, crisis intervention, consultations, online chats, and mental health screenings. These services are provided by staff who welcome all students and embrace a philosophy respectful of clients’ cultural and religious backgrounds, and sensitive to differences in race, ability, gender identity and sexual orientation. Services include the following:

Counseling and Psychological Services at University Park (CAPS): 814-863-0395
Counseling and Psychological Services at Commonwealth Campuses
Penn State Crisis Line (24 hours/7 days/week): 877-229-6400
Crisis Text Line (24 hours/7 days/week): Text LIONS to 741741

Mask Wearing

We know from existing scientific data that wearing a mask in public can help prevent the spread of COVID-19 in the community (Lyu and Wehby, 2020; CDC, 2020; Johns Hopkins Medicine, 2020). Just as you’re expected to wear a shirt and shoes to class every day, everyone -- including the instructor and TAs -- are required to wear a face mask in University buildings, including classrooms and labs. You MUST wear a mask appropriately (i.e., covering both your mouth and nose) in the building if you are attending class in person. Masks have been provided for students, faculty, and staff, and everyone is expected to wear one while on campus or out in the community.

All students, faculty and staff are expected to maintain social distancing (i.e., maintain at least six feet of space between individuals) when possible. Seating patterns and attendance patterns, including assigned seating and closed-off desks/chairs/room sections, have been established to help allow for this distance for your safety. It is also important to follow related guidance communicated by the University and via public postings/signage related to directional traffic flow and maximum occupancy of spaces.

You are not permitted to consume food or drink in classrooms, except for water. If you must drink water, please be especially conscious of maintaining social distancing and minimizing the time your mask is moved aside. Or, better yet, use a water bottle with a built-in straw. Cooperation from EVERYONE will help control the spread of the virus and help us get back to the previous version of campus life as quickly as possible.

Students with conditions that make it difficult to wear a mask or who choose not to wear a mask may participate in class remotely but may not attend class in person. This is to protect your health and safety as well as the health and safety of your classmates, instructor and the University community. Anyone attending class in person without a mask will be asked to put one on or leave. Refusal to comply with University policies is a violation of the Student Code of Conduct. Students who refuse to wear masks appropriately may face disciplinary action for Code of Conduct violations. See details here: https://studentaffairs.psu.edu/support-safetyconduct/student-conduct/code-conduct

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (2020, April 3) Recommendation Regarding the Use of Cloth Face Coverings, Especially in Areas of Significant Community-Based Transmission. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/cloth-face-cover.html

Johns Hopkins Medicine. (2020, June 17) Coronavirus Face Masks & Protection FAQs. https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirusface-masks-what-you-need-to-know

Lyu, W. and Wehby, G.L. (2020, June 16) Community Use Of Face Masks And COVID-19: Evidence From A Natural Experiment Of State Mandates In The US. Health Affairs. https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/full/10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00818?url_ver=Z39.88- 2003&rfr_id=ori%3Arid%3Acrossref.org&rfr_dat=cr_pub++0pubmed&

Webcam Requirements

This course may require you to have a webcam for class assessments. Classes and assessments may be conducted using Zoom or other technology selected by your instructor which may use your computer’s webcam or other technologies to communicate, monitor, and/or record classes, class activities, and assessments. Assessments may also be conducted using proctoring software, which may listen to you, monitor your computer screen, view you and your surroundings, and record (including visual and audio recordings) all activity during the proctoring process. Please contact me if you are unable to comply or have any questions or concerns.

Syllabus and Paper Acknowledgement Forms
It is the recommendation of the college that all students sign and return the Syllabus Acknowledgement Form (http://facdev.e-education.psu.edu/sites/default/files/files/Syllabus acknowledgement form.doc) during the first week of the semester. In addition, The College also recommends the Paper Submission Form (http://facdev.e-education.psu.edu/sites/default/files/files/Paper submission form.docx) as a way to have students take responsibility for papers/labs/homework done as part of group work.

Penn State E-mail Accounts

All official communications from Penn State are sent to students' Penn State e-mail accounts. Be sure to check your Penn State account regularly, or forward your Penn State e-mail (see https://pennstate.service-now.com/sp?id=kb_article_view&sys_kb_id=90160f4ddb9ed0949cde83aa1396199b) to your preferred e-mail account, so you don't miss any important information.

Deferred Grades

If you are prevented from completing this course within the prescribed amount of time for reasons that are beyond your control, it is possible to have the grade deferred with the concurrence of the instructor, following Penn State Deferred Grade Policy 48-40 (http://senate.psu.edu/policies-and-rules-for-undergraduate-students/47-00-48-00-and-49-00-grades/#48-40). To seek a deferred grade, you must submit a written request (by e-mail or U.S. post) to the instructor describing the reason(s) for the request. Non-emergency permission for filing a deferred grade must be requested before the beginning of the final examination period. It is up to the instructor to determine whether or not you will be permitted to receive a deferred grade. If permission is granted, you will work with the instructor to establish a communication plan and a clear schedule for completion. If, for any reason, the course work for the deferred grade is not complete by the assigned time, a grade of "F" will be automatically entered on your transcript.

Military Personnel

Veterans and currently serving military personnel and/or spouses with unique circumstances (e.g., upcoming deployments, drill/duty requirements, disabilities, VA appointments, etc.) are welcome and encouraged to communicate these, in advance if possible, to the instructor in the case that special arrangements need to be made.

Technical Requirements

For this course, we recommend the minimum technical requirements outlined on the Dutton Institute Technical Requirements page (https://www.e-education.psu.edu/techspecs), including the requirements listed for same-time, synchronous communications. If you need technical assistance at any point during the course, please contact the ITS Help Desk (http://itservicedesk.psu.edu).

Netiquette

The term "Netiquette" refers to the etiquette guidelines for electronic communications, such as e-mail and bulletin board postings. Netiquette covers not only rules to maintain civility in discussions, but also special guidelines unique to the electronic nature of forum messages. Please review some general Netiquette guidelines that should be followed when communicating in this course.

Disruptive Behavior

Behavior that disrupts normal classroom activities will not be tolerated, in accordance with Items 9 and 14 in the Student Code of Conduct.

Safety

In the case of an emergency, we will follow the College of Earth and Mineral Sciences Critical Incident Plan (https://www.ems.psu.edu/sites/default/files/documents/faculty_staff/cip_fall_2018-spring_2019.pdf). In the event of an evacuation, we will follow posted evacuation routes and gather at the Designated Meeting Site. Evacuation routes for all EMS buildings are available at http://www.ems.psu.edu/resources-faculty-and-staff/safety-and-emergency-information. For more information regarding actions to take during particular emergencies, please see the Penn State Emergency Action Guides.

Mandated Reporting Statement

Penn State’s policies require me, as a faculty member, to share information about incidents of sex-based discrimination and harassment (discrimination, harassment, sexual harassment, sexual misconduct, dating violence, domestic violence, stalking, and retaliation) with Penn State’s Title IX coordinator or deputy coordinators, regardless of whether the incidents are stated to me in person or shared by students as part of their coursework. For more information regarding the University's policies and procedures for responding to reports of sexual or gender-based harassment or misconduct, please visit Penn State's Office of Sexual Misconduct Prevention & Response website.

Additionally, I am required to make a report on any reasonable suspicion of child abuse in accordance with the Pennsylvania Child Protective Services Law.

Diversity, Inclusion, and Respect

Penn State is “committed to creating an educational environment which is free from intolerance directed toward individuals or groups and strives to create and maintain an environment that fosters respect for others” as stated in Policy AD29 Statement on Intolerance. All members of this class are expected to contribute to a respectful, welcoming and inclusive environment and to interact with civility.

For additional information, see:

Accessible Syllabus

Notes: Any syllabus posted online (e.g. a Word/PDF file or an online syllabus) should make destinations clickable links such as is done throughout this page. Also, in order to comply with Penn State Policy AD69 (Accessibility of Penn State Web Pages, http://policy.psu.edu/policies/ad69), PDF documents cannot be the sole source of presenting online information. Such documents include syllabi, homework assignments, and scanned notes.

Disclaimer Statement

Please note that the specifics of this Course Syllabus can be changed at any time, and you will be responsible for abiding by any such changes. Changes to the syllabus shall also be given to the student in written (paper or electronic) form.